Market forces key to trade apprenticeship numbers

18 June 2008

The economy and structural change in industry are key drivers of apprenticeship numbers, according to new research published by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER).

Report co-author and NCVER Managing Director, Tom Karmel, said the research also found that the predictable relationship between economic conditions and apprenticeship numbers was breaking down.

'There is substantial ongoing debate about apprenticeships and how to increase or maintain numbers,' Dr Karmel said.

'What this study points to is the dominant role of economic and market forces rather than incentives in the apprenticeship story.'

'Using data from 1967 to 2006 to model predicted apprenticeship numbers we found that metal and vehicle, electrical and building apprenticeships have been particularly sensitive to changing labour market conditions.'

'However, lower than predicted printing apprenticeship numbers have been driven by significant structural change within the printing industry.'

'In contrast, the food trades have been more stable and less affected by either labour market or structural conditions.'

Dr Karmel said that apprentice numbers were lower than would have otherwise been the case because the historical relationships between the labour market and apprenticeships appeared to have broken down.

'Structural change in the labour market is a fact of life and trade apprenticeships are right in the middle of it'

'However, while government initiatives may well have increased the number of apprentices they have been unable to counteract completely this trend.'

ENDS

To download a copy of Modelling the trades: An empirical analysis of trade apprenticeships in Australia, 1967-2006, please visit http://www.ncver.edu.au/publications/2003.html.

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