Executive summary

Publication title: Identifying the key factors affecting the chance of passing vocational education and training subjects

This report summarises research which has attempted to identify the key demographic and life-stage factors which impact on successful completion of vocational education and training (VET) subjects.

While a number of different indicators are required to gauge the performance of the VET system, this study was concerned only with the issue of passing and the identification of student characteristics which influence the chances of passing.

The aims of this research were:

• to identify the key demographic and life-stage factors influencing the likelihood of students passing a VET subject
• to determine the underlying profile of those students most likely to pass and those least likely to pass
• to suggest potential student segments for future performance reporting.

The scope of the analysis was all enrolled and assessed VET subjects during 2000 which resulted in a pass or fail outcome. Analysis was carried out at the subject level rather than the course level, because not all subject enrolments coincide with a course enrolment and a large number of students enrol in a single, or small number of VET subjects with no intention of ever completing a full qualification.

Initial 'decision tree' analysis identified several key demographic and life-stage characteristics influencing a student's chance of passing. These are:

• residential location
• educational achievement
• employment status at the time of enrolment
• age at the time of enrolment
• sex
• whether the student comes from a non-English speaking background
• whether the student is Indigenous
• whether the student has a reported disability.

Statistical analysis, using logistic regression, was undertaken to model the influence of these characteristics on the likelihood of an individual student passing an assessed subject.

The results indicate that passing vocational education and training subjects is influenced by these demographic factors. In particular, the likelihood of passing is significantly reduced for people who are Indigenous, have a disability, are of non-English speaking background, are unemployed, or are aged 19 years and less. There is also strong evidence that the unemployed and the young are important student groups in relation to having a lower likelihood of success.

Overlap within major equity groups is also important. The likelihood of passing is significantly reduced for students who are a combination of Indigenous, disabled, of non-English speaking background, unemployed, or young-particularly if aged 19 years or less. Of interest is that, regardless of which group they belong to, female students consistently show equal or higher likelihood of passing than their male counterparts.

Finally, the results suggest future performance reports should consider segmenting the student population according to a mix of a student age, employment status, and their previous educational achievement.