The issue of non-completions and attrition in apprenticeships and traineeships is the most misunderstood aspect of the whole system.

The prevailing view is that attrition is relatively high and getting worse. However, this is not the case.

growth in the absolute number of completions

The growth in the absolute number of recorded completions has reached unprecedented levels in recent years (figure 6). Completion numbers have more than doubled since 1995, rising from 32 900 in 1995 to 73 700 in 2000.

the incorrect use of crude proxies to measure completion rates

Observers have frequently inferred a worsening situation in apprenticeship and traineeship completions over the past 30 years from examining trends in the ratios of completions to commencements. Trends in the ratio of apprenticeship completions to commencements four years earlier and of traineeships completions to commencements one year earlier are shown in figure 7.

The pattern of long-term decline is clear. Little wonder then that most observers have concluded that attrition has been increasing at an alarming rate.

However, this yields a misleading picture. During periods of growth when completions lag behind commencement rises the ratio will always fall.The only valid way to measure completion rates is track each individual’s progress through the training contract, rather than to use aggregate administrative statistics.

the real story about apprenticeship and traineeship completions

The results of various research studies using valid methodologies give an indication of the real completion rates.

Traineeship attrition rates have grown since the mid-1990s, but only marginally. Only 55% of all trainees complete their traineeships. This is much lower than for apprenticeships or other forms of education and training. However, available evidence suggests that traineeship attrition rates are similar to employment attrition rates in the labour market as a whole for persons in the first year of a new job (table 8).

Apprenticeship attrition rates are only increasing very slightly if at all. Apprenticeship completion rates are high compared to other kinds of education and training (table 8).