A regional analysis of employment of tradespersons
Project type:
Managed research project
Project no:
NR08502
Status:
Project in progress
Commenced date:
22 July 2008
Estimated release date:
30 September 2009
Theme:
VET in context > Regional issues
Researchers:
Phil Lewis, Anne Daly, Mike Dockery, Anne Garnett
Contact:
Phil Lewis
University of Canberra
Centre for Labour Market Research
University of Canberra
University of Canberra ACT 2601
phone: 02 6201 2705
fax: 02 6201 5238
email: phil.lewis@canberra.edu.au
This project concentrates on the extent to which the supply of tradespersons has adjusted to changed economic conditions and the regional dimension of these supply changes. This project will use Population Censuses of 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to examine issues of regional dispersion of skilled labour. The project will also look at the impact of the economy on this dispersion and the dynamics of movements of skilled labour in to and out of regions.
The intended outcomes of this research program are to provide important factual information on the regional dimensions of skill shortages and also the basis for more informed policy making with respect to migration, both internal and external, and education and training.
* The project will provide a detailed description of the regional distribution of tradespersons defined as (a) those holding trades? qualifications and (b) those working in trades occupations.
* The project aims to examine the extent to which there have been movements of tradespersons into and out of the different regions (and Australia). In addition to these more permanent movements, the Census data will allow the researchers to get a handle on the extent of more temporary movements (such as fly-in fly-out tradespersons).
* The project will examine the causal factors determining the location and geographical movement of tradespersons.
* The project will investigate the extent of evidence of other mechanisms for labour market adjustment to regional skills shortages, including wages, hours worked, participation rates and substitution between skill levels often evidenced during periods of skill shortages.
The extent to which there have been movements of tradespersons into and out of the different regions (and overseas) and in to and out of occupations will be examined in several ways:
1. Census data will allow the identification of the region of residence or enumeration, arrival date, in the case of migrants from overseas, and region of residence, in the case of Australian residents, in previous years. Therefore, movements of tradespersons in to and out of each region can be identified. The extent of so-called fly-in fly-out tradespersons can be estimated by comparing the geographical distribution by place of enumeration and place of usual residence.
2. Regional regression modelling will be used to relate movements of tradespersons to a set of variables from the Census and other sources. The modelling will be undertaken using each of the approximately 1300 Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) as the unit of observation. The dependent variable in the model for each regional grouping is the percentage change in the number of persons in each occupation of each SLA in the grouping from one census period to the next.
3. Supplementary data will be matched to the Census data from other sources where possible including Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI), DEEWR, the Department of Immigration and Citizenship and industry organisations.
4. Modelling will be conducted using the Census Household Sample File (CURF 1 per cent sample). Detailed regional specification will probably not be possible at this level of disaggregation since the cell sizes will be too small; however, broad regional and state of residence variables will be used. As the household sample file contains unit record data, the unit of analysis in these models will be the individual. This will enable an analysis of the factors that affect an individual's likelihood of people moving in different occupations, and will be undertaken separately for people from selected occupational groups and skill levels (educational qualification). This will provide valuable complementary information for understanding and interpreting the results of the regional level analyses.
The Centre for Labour Market Research (CLMR) is a consortium of the University of Canberra, Murdoch University, the University of Western Australia and Curtin University of Technology. It has been operating for over 20 years and has become one of the most significant economics research institutions in Australia. It has two offices located at Curtin University in Perth and the University of Canberra in the ACT. The Centre has over 20 research associates who hold academic positions in several disciplines including economics, education, psychology, management and industrial relations at the four universities.
The Centre for Labour Market Research has a unique capacity in understanding and researching labour market issues. It has a strong track record of academic and contract research into the Australian labour market as a whole, labour markets in particular occupations and in regional labour markets. It also has conducted a number of studies into skills measurement and skills change plus policy analysis on the implications of skill shortages and how they can be addressed.
