Description
The aim of the research was to identify whether, and how, the demand for the types of skills provided by the vocational education and training (VET) sector was likely to change in the years to 2011. This research has adopted a different approach to investigating future demand for skills: instead of utilising proxies for skills, such as qualification, earnings or nominal occupation, this research has adopted a framework which uses the notion of skills as comprised of cognitive, interactive and motor skills dimensions. The research projects that future jobs are likely to have higher cognitive and interactive components, this being a probable consequence of global change and the rising level of international trade, as well as skill-based technological change.
Summary
About the research
To assist the vocational education and training (VET) sector respond to changes in the skills required in the Australian workforce, the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) commissioned a program of research from the National Institute of Labour Studies, Flinders University, and the Centre for Post-compulsory Education and Lifelong Learning, University of Melbourne.
This report examines one of the central questions in this research area: how can the VET sector adapt to the fluid environment of the workplace when the dynamic nature of the labour market makes it impossible to predict with any certainty future skills needs?
In tackling this question, the authors had to take into account the growing complexity of the skills being demanded of workers. They did this by adopting the notion of cognitive skills (for example, compiling, analysing, coordinating), interactive skills (for example, serving, supervising, mentoring) and motor skills (for example, handling, driving, precision working), rather than using indirect measures (or proxies) of skill such as qualification or occupation. They concentrated their research on those industries expected to have the main employment growth to 2011: property and business services; health and community services; retail; construction; accommodation, cafes and restaurants.
Key messages
- Proxies for skill such as ‘qualifications’ and ‘earnings’ do not always capture the actual skill requirements of jobs because many people with a qualification do not use that qualification directly in their work and others without formal qualifications have the skills to do their job.
- The demand for interactive and cognitive skills is projected to grow, whereas the demand for motor skills is likely to fall. Employers interviewed for this study considered interactive skills to be the key skills required over the next decade.
- A process of ‘skill deepening’ is occurring as increasing job complexity requires workers to move up the interactive and cognitive skill hierarchies.
- To accommodate the demand for interactive and cognitive skills, training packages and curriculum design need to incorporate consideration of worker functions contained within the interactive and cognitive skill sets.
For a synthesis of the consortium's entire program of work, see A well-skilled future by Sue Richardson and Richard Teese in the related items.
Tom Karmel
Managing Director, NCVER
Executive summary
This report is from a research program entitled A well-skilled future: Tailoring VET to the emerging labour market. This research program examines the evolving labour market and changing work organisation and management in the context of the vocational education and training (VET) sector and its role in the development of the appropriate levels, types and quantities of skills required to satisfy the future demands of Australian industry. The research reports have been produced by a consortium comprised of researchers from the National Institute of Labour Studies and the Centre for Post-compulsory Education and Lifelong Learning of the University of Melbourne.
The central question guiding this report is: how will the demand for vocational skills change in the years to 2011? Definitions of skill have changed in recent times and are likely to continue to change as work and the employment relationship continues to evolve.
In attempting to determine skill needs over the mid-term, we explore how global and technological change have impacted on the structure of desired skills. We adopt first an ‘industry approach’ to projecting skill demand based on employment growth in what are predicted to be the most rapidly growing industries. We also use an alternative ‘occupation approach’, whereby we project skill demand in relevant VET-intensive occupations based on the projected increase in employment in each of the occupations. In addition to quantitative analyses, we consulted with employer groups and a large national recruitment firm to determine what they see as the key future skills required, and what can and cannot be expected from the public vocational education system.
To date published Australian studies of changes in the demand for skills are retrospective studies based on historical data. This means that key factors affecting the demand for skills could be identified, analysed and, to some degree, quantified. The focus of this study however involves projecting the future demand for skills and is thus prospective rather than retrospective. This report is also a conceptual departure from traditional studies on skills needs. Rather than focus on proxies of skill such as ‘qualification’, ‘earnings’ or ‘nominal occupation’, a heterogenous conception of skill is used, involving the use of a task-oriented approach to skill based on cognitive, interactive and motor skills. This approach applies a framework derived from the United States Department of Labor’s Dictionary of Occupational Titles. This framework involved applying a calculated skills scale score according to the dimensions of cognitive, interactive and motor skills.
The main findings from both the ‘industry approach’ and ‘occupation approach’ suggest that the demand for interactive and cognitive skills will grow over the next six years and the demand for motor skills is likely to fall. Employers interviewed in this study all strongly agreed that interactive and cognitive skills would be the skill dimensions in highest demand over the coming decade. The findings suggest that the changing nature of the workplace in terms of technological and social changes has led to an increased emphasis on interactive and cognitive skills. Consequently a process of ‘skill deepening’ is occurring as increasing job complexity requires workers to move up the interactive and cognitive skill hierarchies.
Employers interviewed in this study also commented that VET needed to be more flexible and responsive to the needs of industry. Employers commented that more consultation with industry would improve VET offerings and ensure that VET kept pace with the changing needs of industry. The results of the quantitative analysis in this study show that these types of industry statements are more than simple catch phrases—industry needs are changing. Employers interviewed expressed a desire for active partnerships with VET in the design of curriculum and delivery of training, and that restructuring existing qualifications into an elective or modular structure may improve the flexibility of offerings.
The implications for VET are that curriculum design needs to incorporate consideration of the worker functions contained within the interactive and cognitive skill sets. For example, training in the hospitality sectors needs to emphasise the specific interactive skills required in particular jobs. This goes beyond simple customer-focused training characterised by scripted interaction, to a more in-depth treatment of higher-level interactive skills, such as persuasion and negotiation. This notion of ‘ascending the skill hierarchy’ is an important aspect of skill deepening. This type of ‘targeted curriculum’ approach to accommodating deeper levels of skills would need to incorporate an appropriate examination of each level of qualification, since each of the skill dimensions is likely to hold varying significance at different levels of study.
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