A preliminary analysis of the outcomes of students assisted by VET FEE-HELP

VET FEE-HELP is an income-contingent loan scheme that assists eligible students undertaking certain vocational education and training (VET) courses (diploma, advanced diploma, graduate certificate and graduate diploma) with an approved provider by paying for all or part of their tuition costs. The tuition costs are paid directly to the provider. Students’ tuition costs (and a loan fee) are repaid to the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) progressively once the student reaches a certain income level. VET FEE-HELP has been available to eligible students since 2009, with data on student enrolments and completions submitted annually to the Department of Education and Training by approved VET FEE-HELP providers.

NCVER undertook analyses of the VET FEE-HELP Data Collection to investigate:

• the characteristics of VET FEE-HELP assisted students
• which students are likely to access VET FEE-HELP
• whether the proportions of assisted students completing their training vary by provider
• which students are likely to complete their training.

Characteristics of students assisted by VET FEE-HELP

There was a significant increase in VET FEE-HELP activity in 2013 and 2014 compared with earlier stages of the contingent loan scheme. Specifically, the number of approved VET FEE-HELP providers has doubled since 2012, to be just under 250 by 2014, with the number of VET FEE-HELP assisted students more than tripling over the same period, to nearly 160 000. Most of this growth has come from the private provider, full-fee-paying market, which constituted 76% of VET FEE-HELP assisted students in 2014 (compared with 54% in 2012).

Over this period, there has also been a change in the profile of students accessing VET FEE-HELP. Compared with assisted students who commenced their training between 2009 and 2012, a higher proportion of assisted students are now:

• training full-time (at 82% compared with 67%)
• attending externally (at 48% compared with 36%)
• undertaking training in management and commerce (at 46% compared with 31%)
• not employed (at 54% compared with 43%).

Likelihood of accessing VET FEE-HELP

To determine whether a range of personal and training characteristics affected a student’s probability of accessing VET FEE-HELP, a regression model was used. The results showed that the students who are more likely to access VET FEE HELP include:

• 2013 and 2014 commencing students more so than those who commenced between 2009 and 2012
• females more than males
• those aged under 25 years more than those aged 35 and above
• those with a disability more than those without a disability
• those not employed more than those employed
• students attending externally more than those attending internally.

No differences were found between Indigenous and non-Indigenous students in terms of their likelihood to access the scheme.

Overall, the eligible students most likely to access VET FEE-HELP assistance are those who commenced their training between 2013 and 2014 and are not employed. These students have a 96% probability of accessing VET FEE-HELP.

Course completion

Overall, a lower proportion of VET FEE-HELP assisted students who commenced their training between 2009 and 2012 completed their course than did eligible non-assisted students. By 2014, 24% of assisted students had completed their course compared with 34% of non-assisted students.

The proportions of assisted students completing their training differ considerably by student characteristic, ranging from 6% for those attending externally, to 63% of those undertaking a VET graduate diploma. Considerable variation was also observed between providers.

Likelihood of completion

To determine whether VET FEE-HELP assisted students are more likely to complete their training than their non-assisted counterparts, two groups of students were identified from the VET FEE-HELP Student Data Collection. They were:

• completers: students who commenced a qualification between 2009 and 2012¹ and were awarded the qualification between 2009 and 2014²
• non-completers: students who commenced a qualification between 2009 and 2012 and had no record of being awarded the qualification between 2009 and 2014.

It is important to note that continuing students have not been removed from these calculations as they could not be identified. Furthermore, the data for the 2014 calendar year analysed in this report are preliminary. The data have not been validated by the Department of Education and Training, nor do they contain all 2014 completion records.

A regression model was used to determine whether receipt of VET FEE-HELP increases or decreases the likelihood of completion, after controlling for student background characteristics. The results show that students eligible to receive VET FEE-HELP who commenced their training between 2009 and 2012 have a 21% probability of completing their training. The results also show that the students less likely to complete their course are:

• VET FEE-HELP assisted students less than eligible non-assisted students
• males less than females
• younger students less than students aged 25 years and over
• Indigenous students less than non-Indigenous students
• those with a disability less than those without a disability
• students who are not employed less than those employed
• students attending externally less than those attending internally
• students undertaking courses at advanced diploma level less than those undertaking courses at diploma, VET graduate certificate and VET graduate diploma levels.

Overall, the eligible students most likely to complete their training are those attending internally (or via a mix of modes), are employed and are undertaking a course at diploma (or VET graduate diploma or VET graduate certificate) level. On average, they have a 43% probability of completing their course.

Conversely, those eligible students least likely to complete their qualification are essentially an opposite group of students. They are attending externally, are not employed and are undertaking a course at advanced diploma level. On average, they have an 8% probability of completing their course.

Likelihood of completion by provider

There is considerable variation in the likelihood of an eligible student completing their course across providers, ranging from 96% to 1%. The average probability of course completion for all eligible students is 21%. Just over a quarter of providers have a higher than average probability of their eligible students completing their course. Over half have a lower than average probability. This variation may reflect differences in the student body, the geographical location of the provider or other factors not investigated in this analysis.

Conclusions

The students most likely to access VET FEE-HELP in 2013—14 are those attending externally and who are not employed.

When looking at the probability of course completion for eligible students who commenced their training during the scheme’s earlier years (between 2009 and 2012), those studying externally who are not employed have a particularly low predicted probability of completion (with a 10% probability of completing their training). This is compounded further should they be studying an advanced diploma (with an 8% probability of completing their training).

Given the substantial increase in recent years in the number of assisted students now attending externally who are not employed (increasing from 11 128 to 52 506 students between the two periods, an increase of about 370%), this may not bode well for future course completions of VET FEE-HELP assisted students.

¹ The completions analysis was restricted to those commencing in 2009—12, since sufficient time had passed for these students to have had an opportunity to complete their training.

² At the time of this analysis, some 2014 completions records had not been reported to the VET FEE-HELP Student Data Collection.