Australian Qualifications Framework lower-level qualifications: Pathways to where for young people?

This report investigates the outcomes from lower-level qualifications (certificates I and II) for young people aged 15 to 24 years. The data analysed were largely derived from two of the national data collections held by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER).

The findings indicate that vocational and further study outcomes for young people from certificate I and II qualifications could be described as fair, at best, with some variations to these findings according to age, gender and certificate level.

• Young people's rates of completing courses at certificate levels I and II are relatively low. It has been projected that about 33% who enrolled at certificate I level complete a course with 43% at certificate II level.
• The minority who complete (graduates) receive reasonable employment outcomes in the 15 to 19-years age group, while they were less reasonable for the 20 to 24-years age group. Over a third of all graduates reported no job-related benefits from the course.
• Reasonable proportions of graduates enrolled in further study at a higher level within six months after the course, with about a third of certificate I graduates and 43% of certificate II graduates doing so. Similar proportions of graduates completed a further qualification within 30 months after their initial training (28% and 40% respectively), although not always at a higher level.
• Subjects-only completers, who form the majority of students at both certificate I and II levels, do not receive as good employment outcomes as graduates. Subjects-only completers were also more likely than graduates to report no job-related benefit from the course. Subjects-only completers were less likely than graduates to enrol in further study at a higher level, or to complete an additional qualification.
• Preparatory courses, which form a substantial proportion of enrolments at certificate I level (about 47%), do not have good outcomes either in terms of employment or further study. Preparatory courses may, however, have other short-term benefits, which could lead to employment or further study outcomes at a later date.

This report investigates the outcomes from lower-level Australian Qualifications Framework (AQF) qualifications (certificates I and II) for young people (aged 15 to 24 years). These qualifications are aimed at developing basic vocational skills or preparatory access skills. They may also lead to further study. A prime motivation for young people undertaking these qualifications is to facilitate transition into the labour market.

Data were analysed primarily from two of the national data collections held by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER). The 2003 Student Outcomes Survey was used to investigate employment and further study outcomes, as well as young people's motivations for undertaking lower-level AQF qualifications. These data were supplemented by longer-term outcome information from NCVER's 2004 Down the Track Survey of young people. The NCVER's National VET Provider Collection (for 2002 and 2003) was the other main data collection used to gain a picture of where certificate I and II qualifications sit in terms of overall enrolments, and also the projected rates of completion for these courses; that is, what proportion of students graduate.

Throughout the report, outcomes are analysed for both graduates (full course completers) and non-graduates ('subjects only' completers), for both certificate I and certificate II level programs, for males and females, and for those aged 15 to 19 and 20 to 24 years. Outcomes were also analysed for students who had enrolled in preparatory courses at certificate levels I and II. Where relevant, outcomes from certificate III courses are used to provide comparative 'benchmark' data, as this qualification level is considered to be the core of the vocational education and training (VET) system.

Findings

The findings on outcomes should be considered in the context of young people's motivations for undertaking certificate I and II courses. The data indicate that very small proportions (less than 10%) of young people undertook their course for further study reasons. The majority of students reported that they undertook the course for employment-related reasons, while a significant proportion reported personal interest as a motivation, particularly those who undertook single subjects within the full certificate I and II qualifications. Females were found to be more likely to report personal interest and further study as motivations.

A key finding of the research is that few young people who enrol in certificate I and II courses complete. Our analyses projected that about 33% of certificate I students eventually complete a course, while about 43% of certificate II students do. Young people in the 15 to 19-years age group are considerably more likely to complete a course than those in the 20 to 24-years age group.

When we looked at employment outcomes from these courses, we found that there were reasonable outcomes for 15 to 19-year-old graduates in terms of gaining full-time employment-there were about 25 percentage points more employed full-time after the course than before the course. They were not as good for 20 to 24-year-olds where there was an 11-percentage points' difference in terms of those employed full-time before the course and those employed full-time after the course. They were also not as good for subjects-only completers, where there was generally less than 10 percentage points difference between those employed full-time before the course and those employed full-time after the course. As we noted earlier, these subjects-only completers formed the majority of young people undertaking certificate I and II courses.

The investigation of employment outcomes also included analyses of young people who reported career advancement benefits, namely increased earnings and promotion. These were found not to be significant outcomes of these courses, with the exception of 20 to 24-year-old certificate II graduates, where about a quarter of young people reported these benefits.

The proportions of young people reporting no job-related benefit from the course were quite substantial at the certificate I and II levels. We found that over a third of graduates reported no job—related benefit from the course. The proportions were even higher for subjects-only completers, where over 40% of certificate I subjects-only completers and over a half of certificate II subjects-only completers reported no job-related benefit from the course. Subjects-only completers comprise the majority, which means that large proportions overall reported no job-related benefit from the course.

Our research also investigated the degree to which young people go on to further study after undertaking certificate I and II level courses and subjects. First of all we estimated the proportions enrolling in further study at a higher level six months after the initial course; following this, the proportions completing a further qualification 30 months after the initial training were estimated. These analyses showed that over 40% of graduates at certificate II level and a little over a third of graduates at certificate I level had enrolled in further study at a higher level. Within 30 months after the initial training, about 40% of certificate II graduates and 28% of certificate I graduates had completed a further qualification, either at the same or higher level. It is important to remember, however, that graduates formed the minority of young people who had undertaken certificate I and II courses.

By comparison, less than 10% of subjects-only completers overall enrolled in further study at a higher level. We also found that only about 8% of certificate I and 18% of certificate II subjects-only completers had completed a further course within 30 months after the initial training.

Finally, we investigated the outcomes of young people undertaking preparatory courses using the mixed field category from the National VET Provider Collection as a proxy for preparatory courses. These formed a substantial proportion of enrolments at certificate I level (about 47%) and about 10% of enrolments at certificate II level. Overall, outcomes from these courses appeared quite poor. Students in these courses are projected to have very low rates of completing courses (about 25% at certificate I level and 28% at certificate II level). They have poor employment outcomes, with few gaining full-time employment after the course, and in addition, it is estimated that considerably less than 20% enrol in further study at a higher level. The preparatory nature of these courses needs to be kept in mind, however, with students possibly gaining other shorter-term benefits from the courses, such as increased self-esteem and confidence, which may facilitate their going on to employment or further study at a later time.

Conclusions

Outcomes for young people from certificate I and II level VET programs could be described as fair. While there are some reasonable full-time employment outcomes for 15 to 19-year-old graduates (about 25 percentage points more employed full-time after the course than before), they were not quite as good for 20 to 24-year-old graduates (about 11 percentage points more employed full-time after the course than before the course). Subjects-only completers, who were projected to form about 67% of young people at certificate I level and 57% at certificate II level, did not have overall as good employment outcomes as graduates (generally less than ten percentage points more were employed full-time after the course than before the course). We also found that significant proportions reported no job-related benefit from the course. In addition, only a minority of young people were projected to enrol in further study at a higher level (just under a quarter), or to complete a further qualification. As well, the immediate and further study outcomes for young people enrolled in preparatory courses were quite poor, although it needs to be kept in mind that preparatory courses may offer other benefits.