Student flows through Australian TAFE courses

The Australian National Training Authority?s (ANTA) Annual National Report 1998 reports the average pass rate for modules taken in vocational education and training (VET) in Australia in 1998 to be about 80 per cent. This current study aims to supplement such core data on outcomes with estimates of various types of enrolment outcome. The estimates indicate that over three-quarters of course enrolments result in outcomes that can be considered successful.

The report develops and applies a methodology to analyse the flows of students through TAFE courses at the national level.

An important consideration in studying flows of students through TAFE courses is that not all those who enrol in one intend to complete it. Unlike in the higher education sector where most students enrol in a course with the intention of obtaining a qualification, in the VET sector many students intend to only complete some modules of the course. These students are primarily interested in acquiring specific skills. However, they are enrolled in the whole course as a matter of administrative convenience by the VET system. The number of students who fall within this group is difficult to quantify without further research into student motivation.

It is therefore inappropriate to consider only those who complete the whole course as having achieved a successful outcome. It is similarly inappropriate to consider as an indicator of the success rate of a course, the proportion of commencers who complete the whole course. Many of the commencers?the denominator in the calculation of the rate?may have had no intention of completing the whole course.

There is no way to distinguish students who enrolled in order to complete the whole course from those who enrolled only to complete some modules. Further research on student intentions is required. It is therefore necessary at this stage to consider both those who complete the whole course and those who complete some modules but not complete the whole course as having obtained a successful outcome.

Hence the report analyses three possible outcomes for a student enrolling in a course:

• completion of the whole course;
• partial completion (successful completion of all modules enrolled in) and withdrawing from the course; or
• non-completion (failing some part of the course and withdrawing).

This report is based on an analysis of all students who enrolled in TAFE courses in 1994 excluding those who enrolled in courses that involved only one module. The course enrolments analysed include those leading to a recognised qualification and also those leading to non-recognised qualifications such as a Certificate of Proficiency or a Statement of Attainment. Many students do not enrol in recognised courses.

Concepts and definitions

A TAFE course is defined as a structured vocational education and training sequence, normally made up of VET modules, that leads to the acquisition of identified competencies and, if submitted for accreditation, may lead to a qualification. A module is a unit of training in which a student may enrol and be formally assessed. It has a number of specified curriculum hours attached to it. A course, too, has a minimum number of curriculum hours specified for its completion. In general, students enrol for a course, whether or not they intend to attempt all the modules required for completing that course. If they successfully complete the required modules for the course, then they are deemed to have satisfied the requirements for finishing the course.

Official VET statistics include data on module enrolments, module outcomes and course enrolments. Course completion data, even though they are compiled in some State jurisdictions, are not reported in the official VET statistics. The Australian Vocational Education and Training Management Information Statistical Standard (AVETMISS) data elements include assigned quanta of time for courses and modules that are referred to in this report as curriculum hours. Curriculum hours are hours of supervised learning or training deemed necessary in order to adequately present the educational material contained in the course or module.

In this report, definitions of course completion, partial completion and non-completion are based on the aggregated curriculum hours and results of modules that make up the course.

Students are deemed to have:

• completed a course if the sum of the specified curriculum hours for all modules they successfully completed is equal to, or greater than, the specified curriculum hours for that course;
• partially completed a course if, before leaving the course, they did not complete the course as defined above but successfully completed, at the first attempt, at least one module they enrolled for and did not fail any other modules; and
• not completed a course if they do not fall into one of the two above categories.

The above definition of course completion includes all students who are eligible, in terms of curriculum hours, for whatever certification is associated with a completed course.

There are no official statistics on the length of time in years taken by students to complete courses. Our initial analysis of data showed wide variation in student progress through courses that were almost identical in terms of the curriculum hours specified for their completion. For this reason a course was categorised in terms of the modal period of time it took students to complete it. By classifying courses in the manner suggested here, different behaviour patterns for categories of courses may become evident, patterns which might otherwise be averaged out.

Since TAFE data are only compiled on an annual basis, the actual period of enrolment can only be indicated on a whole-year basis, though it is acknowledged that students may complete a course in some fraction of a year or years. The three categories were nevertheless defined as one-, two- and three-year courses. For example, if in a given course most students who completed it did so in one year (or less), then this course was classified as a one-year course. Analysing course enrolments on this basis indicated that 70 per cent of courses could be considered as one-year.

Many of the courses, which are classified as one-year in this report, would be courses for which the specified module hours are less than 200 hours. Such courses made up 37 per cent of all course enrolments but only 10 per cent of contact hours in 1994. It is important to remember that some are very short courses (although courses of just one module in length are not included in the analysis in this report).

The number of hours students enrol for in a single calendar year can range from under 20 hours to over 720 hours. The actual time taken by students to complete a course can vary because of the mode of enrolment or mode of delivery. A very large proportion of enrolment is on a part-time basis (that is, less than 540 specified curriculum hours per year).

The model

The model used in this report to analyse student flows is based on tracing the proportions of students who move through various stages of a course. A stage is defined by reference to the completion of a certain proportion of course hours. The model includes three outcomes for students enrolling in a course?course completion, partial completion and non-completion as defined earlier. On the basis of past data on student flows through various stages of a course, the model estimates the probabilities of achieving the three outcomes for various categories of students. The model is different from those used in analysing student flows through the higher education sector where usually only two outcomes of course enrolment are considered?completion and dropout.

Scope of the study

The model was estimated with national VET data collected for the period 1994 to 1996. These data are held by NCVER. We only consider the progress of TAFE institute-based students, aged 16 and over, who commenced a course in 1994. Enrolments in recreational and leisure courses (stream 1000) and single module courses are excluded from the analyses. Furthermore, the study excludes any enrolment that relied upon recognition of prior learning (RPL) or credit transfer. After these exclusions, about 680,000 commencing course enrolments in 1994 fell within the scope of this study. A student may be associated with more than one course enrolment.

It can be noted that some of those who do not complete a course may recommence the same or a different course at a later date. Re-commencements are not considered in this study.

Key results

The model provides, for the first time, national estimates of the probabilities of completion, partial completion and non-completion of a TAFE course. Although the rate of successful outcomes is high for courses as a whole, the results show considerable variation by age and sex of students, fields of study and streams of study.

Most students leave with a positive outcome

Completion and partial completion of a course, the two satisfactory outcomes from most students? perspective, are found to be the most likely results. Over 76 per cent of enrolments are expected to result in these two outcomes, with 49 per cent in partial completions and 27 per cent in full course completions. The very high rate of partial completion means that the true skill level of the Australian workforce could be higher than the level suggested by qualifications data alone. Student success rates, as opposed to the course success rates reported here, are likely to be higher especially if re-commencers are included in the calculation.

The significance of successful module completion

The results indicate partial completion to be a very significant outcome of a TAFE course enrolment. Almost half of all course enrolments are expected to result in partial completion, which is twice the proportion of completions. This suggests a significant degree of flexibility in the TAFE system to accommodate those students who wish to acquire skills or competencies as they need them, rather than qualifications. For example, in the rapidly changing information technology area, the shelf life of a skill could be quite short, and students may wish to update only those specific skills of immediate application. Ignoring or not measuring partial completions of courses would be a gross underestimation of the true output of the TAFE system.

The pattern of success varies by length of course

The probability of completion or partial completion are substantially higher for one- and three-year courses (0.80 and 0.78) than they are for two-year courses (0.64). Perhaps not surprisingly, longer courses have higher probabilities of partial completion and lower probabilities of course completion than do shorter courses. Of the successful outcomes in one-, two- and three-year courses, 58, 84 and 79 per cent, respectively, are partial completions.

Overall there are very small gender differences in success rates

On average, there are little differences between the rates at which males and females complete, or partially complete, a course, though males have a slightly higher chance of completing a course and females a slightly higher chance of partially completing a course.

Age makes a difference, but the pattern is complex

The variation in the results by the age of students was found to be more substantial. The probability of completion either increases with age or decreases depending on whether it is a one-, two- or three-year course. Although the variation in the probabilities for other course outcomes, partial completion and non-completion is also substantial, the patterns in these cases are more complex.

Success rates vary substantially by streams of study

There is a large variation in success rates across streams of study. Students taking Courses subsequent to an initial vocational course?at a skilled level (stream 4200) have a 0.93 probability of success (two-thirds of which is in the form of full-course completion), the highest for any stream. In contrast, those taking Para-professional/ technician courses (stream 3400) have 0.51 probability of success (almost nine-tenths of which is in the form of partial completion).

Success rates vary substantially by fields of study

The variability of probability of success across fields of study is less than that across streams of study. It varies from 0.60 (of which seven-tenths is partial completion) for Law and legal studies (field 08) up to 0.85 (of which just under two-thirds is partial completion) for TAFE multi-field education.

Further research and development

The model developed in this report has provided for the first time detailed estimates for the flow of students through TAFE courses in Australia. It focused on national data, but can be readily adapted to analyse data at the State level. Although the reduced amount of data available at the State level may prevent estimation of models for all the groups of courses identified in this report, useful information could nevertheless be obtained.

The results suggest that partial completion is a very significant course enrolment outcome in TAFE. For students, full-course completion certainly appears to be of less significance than the completion of some modules. However, in order to develop sound policy on this issue, the reasons for partial completion of courses need to be determined. Further research could also disaggregate partial completions into different types. It would also be interesting to determine if certain types of modules of a course are more common for partial completers to enrol in than other types. Surveys of students who partially complete courses may help to shed further light on these important issues.

Given the significance of partial-course completion in TAFE as demonstrated in this report, one could argue that completed qualifications underestimate the stock of skills in the workforce.

Research on the labour market consequences of partially completing a course is another important area that requires further investigation. It is possible that the students who partially complete courses are reflecting the imperatives of the labour market. Some skills tend to become obsolete in a relatively short time due to rapid technological and organisational change. Such skills need to be constantly upgraded, but with a minimum of disruption to production. Therefore, students, and perhaps their employers, may focus on acquiring skills as they are needed, rather than on investing resources in complete courses, parts of which may have little relevance to their immediate needs.

The causes of the substantial variation in the results across streams (or fields) of study and age of students need further investigation. Could differences in standards of assessment, quality of teaching or student aptitude and motivation be some of the factors that explain the variation? The answer to this question needs further research using alternative data sources.

The research reported here has raised a number of questions about outcomes of a student?s enrolment in a TAFE course. It has provided statistical backing to some generally held views regarding the importance of partial completion as a course outcome in the TAFE system. The results from this study can assist policy development in important areas such as resource allocation, quality assurance, student support services, and the development of appropriate output measures to use in the TAFE system.