Tradespeople for the resources sector: projections 2010-20

The Commonwealth Government created the National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce, chaired by the Hon. Gary Gray, AO, MP, to investigate the extent to which skills shortages might impact on the development of the resources sector. In particular, the taskforce's major responsibilities are to:

• examine the scope and timing of major resources projects
• analyse the expected demand for labour and consider supply issues
• develop a plan to address labour and skills shortage issues in the sector.

To assist the taskforce, the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) was asked to construct projections of the number of tradespeople for the period 2010–20 at a detailed level and by region.

The projections are based on earlier work by Karmel and Ong (2007) that takes a supply-based approach. It applies historical apprenticeship commencement rates to population projections. The model also incorporates assumptions about attrition, again based on historical experience. Three sets of parameters are used, all based on historical experience and reflecting 'good' and 'bad' labour market conditions. The variation between scenarios illustrates the imprecision of these types of exercises and the ability of the labour market and training system to respond to changes in economic conditions.

These projections relate to trades as a whole. Therefore it is necessary to relate them to the resources sector. To do this, tables are included that show the distribution of trades employment and apprentices across the various industries in the resources sector. In this context it should be noted that the resources sector is a relatively small employer of tradespeople, and an even smaller employer of trade apprentices.

Tom Karmel
Managing Director, NCVER