Looking at apprentice and trainee data and employment data back to 1995, we find that declines in apprentice commencements lead declines in total trades employment by four quarters, whereas declines in trainee commencements appear to lag declines in employment in non-trade occupations. Based on this historical relationship, the reduction in apprentice and trainee numbers suggested a much larger decline in employment than eventuated. The low proportion of redundant apprentices who were able to resume training is concerning. However, because apprentice and trainee commencements rebounded so quickly, we anticipate only a minor interruption to the supply of tradespeople.
In this 30 minute podcast, Steve Davis talks with Tom Karmel, Erica Smith and Damian Oliver on insights from research into apprenticeships.textInterested in the story behind the numbers, Tom discusses the findings from his work on individual completion rates that show occupation and employers' size matters, with the implication being that the relationship between employer and apprentice is critical. Erica talks about the all too often unspoken expectations of apprentices and employers—the psychological contract. She finds that writing down these expectations at the start of an apprenticeship does help all parties. Damian examines whether pre-apprenticeship programs deliver on their promise of improved retention rates and finds their impact varies by occupation and prior education level. Implications for policy-makers and training providers are drawn out throughout the podcast.
Pre-apprenticeship programs have attracted a great degree of interest from employers and training providers as one means of increasing apprentice satisfaction and completion rates, by providing an introduction to the trade. We test this proposition using data from the 2010 Apprentice and Trainee Destination Survey. We find that the impact of pre-apprenticeships varies with occupation and prior education level. Pre-apprenticeships increase the likelihood of completion for apprentices in the construction, food and electro-technology trades but reduce completion rates among those already holding a certificate III or higher qualification and some other categories of apprentices.
This paper looks at recent economic downturns and finds that there is little convincing evidence of persistent skill shortages in the trades. There is no evidence of persistent skill shortages across downturns in the construction, automotive and engineering trades. Declining numbers of apprenticeship completions led to persistent shortages in the electrical trades during the 1990s and 2000s but apprenticeship completions for this trade have now recovered to pre-1992 levels. Very high job churn creates the perception of persistent skill shortages in the food trades and in hairdressing. Many food tradespersons and hairdressers swap employers but remain in their occupation.