Looking at apprentice and trainee data and employment data back to 1995, we find that declines in apprentice commencements lead declines in total trades employment by four quarters, whereas declines in trainee commencements appear to lag declines in employment in non-trade occupations. Based on this historical relationship, the reduction in apprentice and trainee numbers suggested a much larger decline in employment than eventuated. The low proportion of redundant apprentices who were able to resume training is concerning. However, because apprentice and trainee commencements rebounded so quickly, we anticipate only a minor interruption to the supply of tradespeople.
This paper was presented at the joint Skills Australia and Industry Skills Councils 2011 conference, , at the Crown Conference Centre, Melbourne. It addresses the challenge of measurement in workforce development planning, and discusses the role of the various players in labour markets and the information they need to make optimal decisions.