Looking at apprentice and trainee data and employment data back to 1995, we find that declines in apprentice commencements lead declines in total trades employment by four quarters, whereas declines in trainee commencements appear to lag declines in employment in non-trade occupations. Based on this historical relationship, the reduction in apprentice and trainee numbers suggested a much larger decline in employment than eventuated. The low proportion of redundant apprentices who were able to resume training is concerning. However, because apprentice and trainee commencements rebounded so quickly, we anticipate only a minor interruption to the supply of tradespeople.
This paper was presented at the joint Skills Australia and Industry Skills Councils 2011 conference, , at the Crown Conference Centre, Melbourne. It addresses the challenge of measurement in workforce development planning, and discusses the role of the various players in labour markets and the information they need to make optimal decisions.
The main impetus for the interest in innovation is that it is seen to improve productivity at the firm level and therefore improved economic prosperity and living standards. This edited volume was commissioned by the Department of Employment, Education and Workplace Relations. The authors contribute a variety of views on innovation from different perspectives. Some of the main themes running throughout the book are reasons for firms innovating, the skills required for innovation and how innovation and skills development is supported by the training system, the firm and government. Innovation is seen as moving beyond research and development, to include new products, services and operational/organisational processes.
This paper updates an earlier paper by Karmel and Mlotkowski and looks at how the probability of getting a job, in addition to wages, impacts on completion rates. It finds that for trade apprentices the premium (or extra wage completing an apprenticeship brings) attached to becoming a tradesperson is a significant factor, whereas for non-trade trainees the training wage matters more. It also finds that the probability of employment for an apprentice or trainee on completion is greater than if they drop out; this particularly affects completion rates for trades and females in non-trade occupations. Finally, the economic downturn significantly increased the attractiveness of apprenticeships and traineeships.
This briefing paper considers how young people fared in previous downturns, and discusses how structural labour market changes over the past 20 years have affected the three million young Australians aged between 15 and 24 in the first 12 months of the most recent economic downturn. It also looks at the qualitative evidence from respondents in the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) on how they perceived the economic downturn to have affected their work and study intentions in 2009, and explores the themes arising.
Research messages 2010 is a collection of summaries of research projects published by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER). The summaries are clustered under five broad themes used by NCVER to organise its research and analysis: Industry and employers; Students and individuals; Teaching and learning: VET system; and VET in context. Research messages 2010 also has an overview essay that captures the themes and highlights from the research for the year.
This paper looks at recent economic downturns and finds that there is little convincing evidence of persistent skill shortages in the trades. There is no evidence of persistent skill shortages across downturns in the construction, automotive and engineering trades. Declining numbers of apprenticeship completions led to persistent shortages in the electrical trades during the 1990s and 2000s but apprenticeship completions for this trade have now recovered to pre-1992 levels. Very high job churn creates the perception of persistent skill shortages in the food trades and in hairdressing. Many food tradespersons and hairdressers swap employers but remain in their occupation.