Looking at apprentice and trainee data and employment data back to 1995, we find that declines in apprentice commencements lead declines in total trades employment by four quarters, whereas declines in trainee commencements appear to lag declines in employment in non-trade occupations. Based on this historical relationship, the reduction in apprentice and trainee numbers suggested a much larger decline in employment than eventuated. The low proportion of redundant apprentices who were able to resume training is concerning. However, because apprentice and trainee commencements rebounded so quickly, we anticipate only a minor interruption to the supply of tradespeople.
NCVER