The ageing of the Australian population has become an issue of national concern. How ageing impacts on the supply of vocational skills is less well known, and different age groups vary in the extent and character of vocational skills they possess. This report analyses and quantifies the compositional effects of changing demographics on both the quantitative and qualitative dimensions of the supply of vocational skills. Focusing particularly on occupations that utilise vocational skills intensively, this report provides an analysis of projected VET employment and VET qualifications by occupation and by age groups over a 15-year period to 2020.
The vocational education and training (VET) sector seeks to teach courses that will meet the future demands from employers in terms of the quantity and types of skills required. This report, which is part of the larger consortium program, 'A well-skilled future: Tailoring VET to the emerging labour market', examines how the VET sector might anticipate what the future needs of employers might be and describes the difficulty of projecting the evolution of the economy. It offers an initial evaluation of the accuracy of the principal model used for skills forecasting in Australia (the MONASH model) and concludes with a discussion of how best to manage the uncertainty over the shape of future skills demand.