This paper updates an earlier paper by Karmel and Mlotkowski and looks at how the probability of getting a job, in addition to wages, impacts on completion rates. It finds that for trade apprentices the premium (or extra wage completing an apprenticeship brings) attached to becoming a tradesperson is a significant factor, whereas for non-trade trainees the training wage matters more. It also finds that the probability of employment for an apprentice or trainee on completion is greater than if they drop out; this particularly affects completion rates for trades and females in non-trade occupations. Finally, the economic downturn significantly increased the attractiveness of apprenticeships and traineeships.
This paper was prepared for the Australian Government's National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce, which was created to investigate the extent to which skill shortages might impact on the development of the resources sector. It applies historical apprenticeship commencement rates to population projections to provide an estimate of the number of tradespeople likely to be working in the resources sector between 2010 20 at a detailed level and by region.
The NCVER Apprentice and Destination Survey collected, among other things, data on reasons for not completing an apprenticeship or traineeship. This paper finds that poor working conditions or non-sympathetic bosses or workmates have an immediate effect for many. By contrast, the desire to do something different (such as study at university) or better (such as getting a better paid job) remains constant throughout the duration of the training contract.
School-based apprentices and trainees have recently been given more prominence as an element of vocational education and training in school, partly as a response to skill shortages in a wide range of areas. The purpose of this paper is to provide data on school-based apprentices and trainees to enable a judgement to be made about how this policy push is unfolding. The number of school-based apprentices and trainees is small but growing rapidly, numbers are concentrated in retail and hospitality training packages. Completion rates are lowest in the trades.
Trade apprenticeships in Australia from 1967 to 2006 are modelled in this paper. These models are used to understand how apprentice numbers in the trades respond to changes in labour market conditions. The models also allow commentary on the impact of recent government policy initiatives on trade apprentices. The paper finds that some trade apprenticeships are particularly sensitive to labour market conditions; that historical relationships between apprenticeship numbers and the labour market in the majority of occupations have broken down in the last ten years; and that government initiatives have been unable to counteract completely this trend.