Australia's national VET data custodian

Publications

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Evaluating machine learning for projecting completion rates for VET programs

By Michelle Hall, Melinda Lees, Cameron Serich, Richard Hunt

This technical paper summarises exploratory analysis undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness of using machine learning approaches to calculate projected completion rates for VET programs and compares with the current Markov chains methodology used by NCVER.

Measuring the socioeconomic status of Australian youth

By Patrick Lim, Sinan Gemici

When measuring the socioeconomic status of young people, the authors find that the SocioEconomic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) works well when reporting participation in higher education at aggregate levels, but performs very poorly when classifying individuals. This has policy implications because it means that programs directing resources to increase educational participation for those with low socioeconomic status may be doing so based on incorrect information. The data used come from the 2003 cohort of the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY), looking at young people aged 15 to 25 years.

Individual-based completion rates for apprentices

By Tom Karmel

Low completion rates for apprentices and trainees have received considerable attention recently and it has been argued that NCVER seriously understates completion rates. In this paper Tom Karmel uses NCVER data on recommencements to estimate individual-based completion rates. It is estimated that around one-quarter of trade apprentices swap employers during their apprenticeship. Taking this into account, Karmel estimates completion rates for individuals, ranging from 39.2% for the food trades to 64.2% for electrotechnology and telecommunications trades workers. He notes that employer churn is an issue, with the worst occupations being hairdressing and the food trades.